A decision by Qantas to temporarily divert their Perth to London flights away from trouble in the Middle East highlights the fact that parts of the world are no-go zones for airlines.

You might think that urine-stained seats or the unexpected appearance of time travellers might be the biggest of your air travel worries, but geopolitics is a far more pressing and ever-present concern for carriers. Late last week, Qantas decided the threat of armed conflict between Iran and Israel and missiles flying through the sky made the usual QF9 flightpath a little too hot to handle. 

QF9, temporarily rebadged as QF209, now flies via Singapore, and instead of barrelling straight up the Persian Gulf and over the badlands between Iran and Israel, charts a more northerly path out of Singapore over India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea before settling onto a westerly tracking towards Heathrow. It adds an extra four hours of travel time, but that sure beats dealing with missile threats.

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Qantas calls the diversion, currently in place until August 22, “a precaution.” It’s a wise precaution, too. Recent history includes the shooting down of a fully loaded Korean Air Boeing 747 in 1983 by a Russian jet fighter, killing 269 people. In 2014, Russian-backed forces shot down a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 overflying Ukraine, killing 298 people, including many Australian men, women, and children.

No airline wants their aircraft to join that club. That’s why many are currently avoiding the normally well-flown airspace just south of the Iran/Iraq border between the Persian Gulf and Türkiye. It’s familiar territory to Australians, with Qantas and many Europe-bound flights out of Asia and the Gulf usually traversing it. But look on flight tracking websites now, and most flights (but not all) out of places like Dubai and Doha are diverting south through Saudi Arabia, over the top of the Red Sea, and shooting up north towards Greece and Italy, avoiding any potential dangers.

A World Of No-Fly Zones

While currently the main region making headlines, the Iran/Iraq border isn’t the only no-fly zone. Ukraine remains strictly off-limits. Russia’s invasion of that country resulted in airspace closing to commercial aircraft. But even if the Russians withdrew tomorrow, no airline will venture into Ukrainian skies until that country’s security situation is fully resolved.

Western sanctions against Russia as a result of its move into Ukraine have rendered Russian airspace inaccessible to many airlines, causing havoc at airlines that typically fly between Europe and North Asian ports over Russia. The Japanese carriers now make a marathon trip over the Arctic to fly between Tokyo and Europe, affording some dazzling views of Greenland but making for a very long flight.

Finnair based much of its business model on flying between Helsinki and North Asia. They’ve had to pivot to new ways of making money, including running a shuttle-like service between Helsinki and Doha and wet-leasing aircraft to customers like Qantas. Airlines also avoid North Korean airspace for reasons that need little explanation.

The security situation in Sudan saw the airspace over that country closed to civilian aircraft in April 2023. The real risk here isn’t getting shot down (although that does remain somewhat of a risk). The big problem is suddenly having to divert to Khartoum and what happens when you’re on the ground. Of course, unexpected diversions remain a problem for many people. It’s a risky world out there, something that’s easy to forget when you’re squeezing down another gin and tonic at the Emirates inflight bar.

The ongoing civil war in Libya has rendered airspace over that country unsafe. The threat is two-edged. Government air defence systems cannot be trusted to behave civilly. Nor can the opposing militia, who have threatened to shoot down planes. As a result, the US and most European countries have banned their carriers from flying over the country.

The Cost Of Airspace Diversions

Big deal, you might think. Just fly around the problem, like Qantas does with QF9/209. The problem is closed airspace can take up a substantial slice of the planet, often strategically positioned slices, and skirting around them is easier said than done. The aircraft operating the Perth to London flight, a Boeing 787-9 — whose business class cabins we recently reviewed and loved — is pushing towards its limits as it is. It needs to take the shortest route – and that’s up the Persian Gulf. 

Diversions cost money. It costs around AUD25,000 per hour to keep that B787-9 in the sky, give or take a few bucks for fuel fluctuations and passenger loads. You can do the math for the four hours extra travel time. Diversions cost time. They involve schedule changes, which then impacts the next flight that aircraft was due to operate. Diversions have a domino-like effect on airlines and operators. But diversions are all about safety, and safety is paramount in aviation.

Some passengers might complain about the inconvenience, but airlines would rather that than those passengers getting a window view of missiles scudding around below the plane…